Adjusted College Basketball Top 100

Last year I did my picks with KenPom (and did well!), the year before I did them with RPI and it didn’t go so well.  This year, I’m using a different method and adding my own special sauce.

  1. I aggregated the RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and ESPN’s BPI, then I took a simple average.
  2. With that simple average, I rescaled the rankings using Sagarin’s ratings to make a reasonable scale (1-100 rankings didn’t make any sense).
  3. Next, I took Sagarin’s conference ratings and scaled the ratings based on conference difficulty.  My going theory is that playing tougher teams makes you better and vice versa.
  4. Next, I took the true shooting percentage and scaled teams either up or down.  True shooting is heavily affected by made 3 pointers, so I wanted to give a boost to teams that make threes.
  5. Lastly, I added some variance.  With a 7 game series, the variance is greatly reduced and the best team tends to win.  In college, with a 1 game series, variance plays a bigger role.  I’m coming up with a method for how to deal with this, but I’m thinking that if a lower team’s upside is greater than a higher team’s median, I’m going to treat that as a coin toss.  My variance is 3 points. I need to play with this range a bit.
    SCHOOL Conference Scalar Adjusted Aggregate TS% TS Deviance Total Aggregate Low Range High Range
    Villanova 0.991439 93.80008 0.616 0.5679 94.36798 91.36798 97.36798
    North Carolina 0.996344 94.07667 0.556 -0.0321 94.04457 91.04457 97.04457
    Kansas 1 93.48151 0.58 0.2079 93.68941 90.68941 96.68941
    West Virginia 1 93.29343 0.548 -0.1121 93.18133 90.18133 96.18133
    Louisville 0.996344 93.3271 0.543 -0.1621 93.165 90.165 96.165
    Duke 0.996344 92.57753 0.587 0.2779 92.85543 89.85543 95.85543
    Virginia 0.996344 92.76492 0.553 -0.0621 92.70282 89.70282 95.70282
    Florida 0.985055 92.64026 0.555 -0.0421 92.59816 89.59816 95.59816
    Baylor 1 92.54111 0.563 0.0379 92.57901 89.57901 95.57901
    Kentucky 0.985055 92.45499 0.567 0.0779 92.53289 89.53289 95.53289

 

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