For your perusal:
Last year I did my picks with KenPom (and did well!), the year before I did them with RPI and it didn’t go so well. This year, I’m using a different method and adding my own special sauce.
- I aggregated the RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and ESPN’s BPI, then I took a simple average.
- With that simple average, I rescaled the rankings using Sagarin’s ratings to make a reasonable scale (1-100 rankings didn’t make any sense).
- Next, I took Sagarin’s conference ratings and scaled the ratings based on conference difficulty. My going theory is that playing tougher teams makes you better and vice versa.
- Next, I took the true shooting percentage and scaled teams either up or down. True shooting is heavily affected by made 3 pointers, so I wanted to give a boost to teams that make threes.
- Lastly, I added some variance. With a 7 game series, the variance is greatly reduced and the best team tends to win. In college, with a 1 game series, variance plays a bigger role. I’m coming up with a method for how to deal with this, but I’m thinking that if a lower team’s upside is greater than a higher team’s median, I’m going to treat that as a coin toss. My variance is 2.5 points. .