NCAA Tournament Data

For your perusal:

tournament projections

Methodology:

Last year I did my picks with KenPom (and did well!), the year before I did them with RPI and it didn’t go so well.  This year, I’m using a different method and adding my own special sauce.

  1. I aggregated the RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and ESPN’s BPI, then I took a simple average.
  2. With that simple average, I rescaled the rankings using Sagarin’s ratings to make a reasonable scale (1-100 rankings didn’t make any sense).
  3. Next, I took Sagarin’s conference ratings and scaled the ratings based on conference difficulty.  My going theory is that playing tougher teams makes you better and vice versa.
  4. Next, I took the true shooting percentage and scaled teams either up or down.  True shooting is heavily affected by made 3 pointers, so I wanted to give a boost to teams that make threes.
  5. Lastly, I added some variance.  With a 7 game series, the variance is greatly reduced and the best team tends to win.  In college, with a 1 game series, variance plays a bigger role.  I’m coming up with a method for how to deal with this, but I’m thinking that if a lower team’s upside is greater than a higher team’s median, I’m going to treat that as a coin toss.  My variance is 2.5 points. .
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One thought on “NCAA Tournament Data

  1. Pingback: Basketball Predictions – How’d It Go? | Jeff Lail

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